Today we’re gonna be discussing the question: can you make money sports betting?
Being a successful sports bettor is an attainable goal, but it requires a level of discipline, practice and understanding of the odds and how sports books work to be successful. So I hope to take you through a spreadsheet today that illustrates the winning percentages required and the volatility in you can expect on your pathway to being a successful sports bettor.
Let’s jump into it and I’ll talk you through this example.
What I have here is a spreadsheet that simulates 10,000 bets at a $110 per bet, -110 odds.
Essentially straight across the board. This is a the type of odds that you would get spread betting. Let me just break down how this spreadsheet works. Down this side we have our 10,000 bets. Across the top we have various winning percentages. This is the winning percentage that you’re projecting to win at.
I have between fifty and sixty percent any more than that…if anybody tells you that they’re winning over the long term at a rate higher than that
they’re either trying to get money out of you or they’re deluding themselves.
So how this works is with a random number generator here versus the and the winning percentage that you are projecting. It calculates out whether
You’re either going to win a $100 or you’re going to lose your bet minus $110. Whether you’re gonna lose a hundred and ten dollars is based on the winning percentage that were we’re tracking here.
Let’s go over to the graph. The first thing that I want to show you is the expected winnings line. The red line here is a pure mathematical calculation. There’s no randomness in that. Essentially that is is showing, in this case, if you win 5,000 of your bets at a hundred dollars and lost 5,000 of your bets at a hundred and ten dollars the result. You can see that steady linear progression that’s what you’re gonna focus on for the potential outcome.
The problem is is when we look at the winnings column, this is the simulation. Now, here and I can run any number of simulations. You can watch that winnings number. The blue line and the graph jump around and that’s the volatility with which sports betting operates. The longer… the more bets you place, the closer to that red line you’re going to get. At 10,000 bets these are sort of the numbers that you’re looking at.
What we see here, particularly in this in this simulation, the red line and the blue line crossing at a point of 52.4%. That’s a really important number for sports bettors. When you’re dealing with a sports book that has a 10-percent vig (juice) The average sportsbook with- 110 odds, 52.4% is the number that you need to win, to break even in sports betting. That’s your your starting point as a sports bettor.
You have to get to that point. Otherwise, as you can see from both lines here you could end up losing a significant amount of money. What this also shows is the the essential progression as you become a better sports better, as you win at a higher rate over the course of these 10,000 bets. If you’re going to win as sixty percent rate the potential outcome there is around a hundred and sixty thousand dollars.
Winning at a sixty percent rate is very difficult and it takes the discipline and the practice that I’ve mentioned before, but what I wanted to show really solidly here is that you can make money sports betting but every single percentage point here makes a difference in your outcome. Every percentage point helps cut down the volatility in the risk in losing money and also increases your profit in a linear fashion.
You have to fight for every single every single dollar, every single bet that you place, every single odd that you choose along the way. You’ll be able to download this spreadsheet from the website, from the links below the article. Feel free to play around with it once again.
Press ctrl-shift F9 and you can run through as many simulations as you want. Illustrate what you’re looking at should you want to become a long-term successful sports bettor. Thanks again for tuning in.